The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model     

Helen Crowley  Julian J. Bommer  Rui Pinho  Juliet Bird 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(14):1653-1685

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Annihilation of both place and sense of place: the experience of the Cheslatta T'En Canadian First Nation within the context of large-scale environmental projects     

J E WINDSOR  J A MCVEY† 《The Geographical journal》2005,171(2):146-165

The water resources of Canada are today, and have always been, of major importance to the welfare of Canadians. Throughout most of Canada's history, these resources have been viewed within a supply–management framework and, frequently, exploited through the construction of 'megaprojects', often with little or no concern for issues such as environmental harm and social and community disruption. As in many parts of the world, those most affected by such large-scale water resource developments have been aboriginals (in Canada, 'First Nations' peoples). Although the issues of environmental, social and economic damage to First Nations as a result of water megaprojects have been investigated, little has been written about the impact of such projects – especially dam construction – on the loss of sense of place of deracinated peoples. This paper investigates one example of such loss of sense of place, that of the Cheslatta T'En forcibly removed from their ancestral lands in the 1950s so as to allow for the construction of a private hydroelectric dam by the Aluminum Company of Canada (Alcan).  相似文献   

Modelling of multiple events using empirical Green''s functions: method, application to swarm earthquakes and implications for their rupture propagation     

Tomá&#; Fischer 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(3):991-1005

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事故经济损失评估方法及计算机程序设计     

郭海林 《地质科技情报》2005,24(Z1):55-58

分析了事故的后果和经济损失,详细论述了由于生产活动的中止和人的死亡或劳动能力的丧失而导致的生产活动中劳动力资源损失的计算方法,并应用面向对象的数据库系统Cache′和Delphi开发工具编写了事故经济损失计算程序,以货币形式给出了每个损失点的损失大小并输出可能损失的报告书,为事故管理、安全决策和风险评估提供了科学的依据.  相似文献   

On size and boundary effects in scaled model blasts spatial problems     

H. P. Rossmanith  K. Uenishi 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2005,9(3):139-174

This paper addresses size and boundary effects on wave propagation, fracture pattern development and fragmentation in small scale laboratory-size specimens for model blasting. Small block type specimens are centre-line loaded by linear explosive charges and supersonically detonated. Using elastic wave propagation theory and fracture mechanics it is shown that the type of boundary conditions which prevail at the outer boundary of the cylinder control the extension of bore-hole cracking and fragmentation within the body of the cylinder. In the case of a composite block where a cylindrical core of different material is embedded, the level of fracturing and fragmentation is controlled by the separation of the interface which in turn depends on the relative dimensions of the core and the block. The most important parameter is the ratio between the length of the pulse (space-wise or time-wise) and the characteristic dimensions of the models, i.e. in this case the dimensions of the core and the mantel. Stress wave superposition effects occur in the corner sections of the mantel. Theoretical results are in good agreement with recent experimental findings.  相似文献   

Validating the ability of the discontinuous deformation analysis method to model normal P‐wave propagation across rock fractures          下载免费PDF全文

Wenjun Gong  Yunsheng Wang  Youjun Ning  Yonghong Luo  Yujie Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(10):1267-1282

The effects of fractures on wave propagation problems are increasingly abstracting the attention of scholars and engineers in rock engineering field. This study aims to fully validate the ability of discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) to model normal P‐wave propagation across rock fractures. The effects of a single fracture and multiple parallel fractures are all tested. The results indicate that DDA can accurately reflect the fracture effects, including the fractures stiffness, the fracture spacing and the fracture number, and the effects of incident wave frequency on one‐dimensional P‐wave propagation problems. Thus, DDA is able to deal well with normal incident P‐wave propagation problems. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparison of runoff characteristics of two adjacent basins in a tropical rainforest using a modified hydrologic cycle model with outflow          下载免费PDF全文

Taeko Wakahara  Katsushige Shiraki  Masakazu Suzuki 《水文研究》2014,28(3):509-520

We propose a new runoff model including an outflow process that was applied to two adjacent basins (CL, TL) located in Lambir Hills National Park in north‐central Sarawak, Malaysia. Rainfall, runoff, topography, and soil layer thickness were observed. About 19% of annual runoff was observed in the CL basin (21.97 ha), whereas about 46% was observed in the TL basin (23.25 ha). It was inferred that the CL basin has an outflow because of low base flow, small runoff peak, and excessive water loss. By incorporating the outflow process into the HYdrological CYcle MODEL, good agreement between the data generated by the model and that observed was shown, with the exception of the data from the rainless period. Then, the fitting parameters for each basin were exchanged, except for the outflow parameter, and the characteristics of each basin were compared by calculating virtual runoff. As a result, the low base flow of the CL basin was estimated by the movement of the rainwater that escaped from the basin as deep percolation or lateral flow (11% of rainfall). The potential of the CL basin for mitigating flood and drought appeared to be higher than that of the TL basin. This is consistent with the topographic characteristics of the CL basin, which has a gentler slope than the TL basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Discrete element model for crack propagation in brittle materials          下载免费PDF全文

Ba Danh Le  Georg Koval  Cyrille Chazallon 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(4):583-595

We propose a discrete element model for brittle rupture. The material consists of a bidimensional set of closed‐packed particles in contact. We explore the isotropic elastic behavior of this regular structure to derive a rupture criterion compatible to continuum mechanics. We introduce a classical criterion of mixed mode crack propagation based on the value of the stress intensity factors, obtained by the analysis of two adjacent contacts near a crack tip. Hence, the toughness becomes a direct parameter of the model, without any calibration procedure. We verify the consistency of the formulation as well as its convergence by comparison with theoretical solutions of tensile cracks, a pre‐cracked beam, and an inclined crack under biaxial stress. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

南海东北部内潮的模态结构和传播     

刘倩  谢晓辉  尚晓东  陈桂英  汪宏 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(9):12-23

The evolution of energy, energy flux and modal structure of the internal tides(ITs) in the northeastern South China Sea is examined using the measurements at two moorings along a cross-slope section from the deep continental slope to the shallow continental shelf. The energy of both diurnal and semidiurnal ITs clearly shows a～14-day spring-neap cycle, but their phases lag that of barotropic tides, indicating that ITs are not generated on the continental slope. Observations of internal tidal energy flux suggest that they may be generated at the Luzon Strait and propagate west-northwest to the continental slope in the northwestern SCS. Because the continental slope is critical-supercritical with respect to diurnal ITs, about 4.6 kJ/m~2 of the incident energy and 8.7 kW/m of energy flux of diurnal ITs are reduced from the continental slope to the continental shelf. In contrast, the semidiurnal internal tides enter the shelf because of the sub-critical topography with respect to semidiurnal ITs.From the continental slope to the shelf, the vertical structure of diurnal ITs shows significant variation, with dominant Mode 1 on the deep slope and dominant higher modes on the shelf. On the contrary, the vertical structure of the semidiurnal ITs is stable, with dominant Mode 1.  相似文献   

木本植被覆盖岸坡上波浪爬升过程的数值模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

徐海珏  胡萍  白玉川  杨波 《海洋学报》2020,42(3):10-24

近岸木本植物构成的生态缓冲带作为新型的海岸软防护结构，兼具功能性和生态友好性，在沿海工程建设中愈发受到关注，如何深入开展其防护效果的机理研究是目前亟待解决的问题。本文采用数值模拟方法，在N-S方程中分别考虑树枝和树干的拖曳力影响，提出了木本植被作用下波浪沿斜坡爬升的表面波衰减的连续介质等效模型，并采用MAC法来跟踪自由曲面上的水颗粒轨迹。本文以波浪沿1/30的斜坡爬升为算例，对比讨论了有无植被作用下波浪的传播过程，并将算例结果与以往试验结果规律进行对照，验证了数值模型的有效性。最后，分别讨论了植物枝干的高度、密度、树枝倾斜角度等植被特性和波浪因素对植被消浪效果的影响，得到植被消浪的基本规律。文中的计算结果也可为实际的护岸工程和生态景观设计提供参考。  相似文献